Today’s election day could have a massive impact on the future of shipping, commodities and tariffs here in the U.S. Every single seat in the House of Representative is up for grabs, as well as 35 Senate seats. These races could have a pivotal impact on the economy, as control of Congress hangs in the balance.
Polling ahead of today’s election shows the majority of Americans don’t believe the Iran war was worthwhile. This polling comes as the White House and Tehran remain at a sort of stalemate on the next steps in this conflict.
Iran has been intensifying attacks on cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz, putting shipping in a more tenuous position this Midterm cycle. Those attacks have also left oil prices in limbo.
Tariffs are also a major sticking point as voters head to the polls today. According to a recent Fox News poll, 69% of Americans disapprove of the president’s handling of tariffs.
There are multiple candidates this Midterm cycle who are supporting President Trump’s agenda. Minnesota Republican Senate candidate Michele Tafoya has defended tariffs as a negotiating tool with U.S. trading partners. Republican Congressman Mike Lawler, who is facing a critical race in New York, has voted in favor of the President’s tariffs, but also called for an exemption to certain tariffs for his state.
So what do today’s elections mean for these two key issues? Come January 2027, when whichever candidate wins will begin their Congressional term, there could be some significant fracturing between the Hill and the White House
If Democrats take control of either or both the House and Senate, they will likely feel significant pressure to reign in the Iran War. First, they are likely to re-introduce the War Power Resolution, but this would need ⅔ of the Senate to pass and override President Trump’s potential veto, so even if Democrats control the upper chamber, it’s unlikely this bill would go through.
The one thing Democrats would be able to wield is the power of the purse. Congress determines how taxpayer money is spent, so Democrats could decide to cut off funding for the war or the President’s beautification processes in DC.
If Democrats control both chambers of Congress, and some Republicans are willing to work across the aisle, we could see major foreign relations/policy law reform. The Brookings Institute says if this does come about, it could be the greatest change since the post-Vietnam war era.
If Republicans are able to maintain their control of both chambers, it is likely that President Trump will be able to move forward with his agenda with full support of Capitol Hill for the next two years. It would then be up to the 2028 election, when not only is the White House up for grabs, but all House seats are up for election, as well as 34 Senate seats.