Escalating military strikes between the U.S., Israel, and Iran have pushed one of the world’s most critical trade corridors into crisis.
Following Iranian retaliation and the announcement that navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, global shipping, energy and containerized cargo alike, is facing severe disruption. What began as targeted military action has rapidly evolved into a broad supply chain event with implications across ocean freight, air cargo, energy markets, and insurance.
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil consumption and significant volumes of LNG, particularly from Qatar. Since the strikes:
- At least 150 vessels have dropped anchor in and around the strait.
- Multiple tankers have sustained projectile or aerial damage.
- Two seafarers have been killed in separate incidents.
- War risk insurers are withdrawing coverage in the Gulf.
Brent crude has surged more than 8%, and European natural gas prices have jumped amid fears of prolonged closure.Freight markets were already tightening. The benchmark VLCC TD3C route (Middle East–China) has nearly tripled since the start of 2026, now approaching Worldscale 225 — roughly $12 million per voyage.
If the closure persists, refiners will likely accelerate sourcing from the U.S. Gulf and West Africa, increasing ton-mile demand and supporting elevated freight rates on Atlantic routes.
While energy cargo dominates headlines, containerized trade is now feeling the strain. Major carriers have begun suspending bookings, rerouting vessels, and imposing emergency surcharges:
- MSC has suspended all new bookings for cargo to the Middle East.
- Maersk has paused Red Sea and Suez Canal sailings and is rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.
- CMA CGM ordered vessels to shelter, suspended Suez transits, and announced an “Emergency Conflict Surcharge” of $2,000–$4,000 per container.
- Hapag-Lloyd introduced a $1,500 per container war risk surcharge and suspended Hormuz transits.
- COSCO Shipping Lines instructed vessels to proceed to safe waters and is evaluating alternative discharge ports.
- Ocean Network Express (ONE) temporarily suspended new Gulf bookings.
MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, COSCO Shipping Lines, and Ocean Network Express collectively represent a substantial share of global container capacity. Their coordinated pullback signals how seriously the industry is assessing risk.
Sailing around the Cape of Good Hope instead of transiting the Suez Canal adds 10–14 days to Asia–Europe voyages and absorbs approximately 2.5 million TEUs of global container capacity, according to freight analytics firm Xeneta. That capacity loss alone can tighten global supply, push up spot rates, and delay consumer goods ranging from electronics to automotive components.
War risk insurance markets have reacted quickly. Some underwriters are cancelling or suspending coverage for vessels operating in the Gulf. Without adequate war risk cover:
- Ships may be contractually unable to transit high-risk zones.
- Charter parties may trigger force majeure discussions.
- Freight and security surcharges are likely to expand globally.
- The insurance reaction effectively reinforces the physical closure.
For importers and exporters, whether moving crude, LNG, or containerized cargo, several risks are now active:
Transit Delays and Rerouting
Anchored vessels, alternative ports, and Cape routings extend transit times significantly.
Freight Volatility
Energy tanker rates are surging. Container rates are likely to follow as capacity tightens.
Emergency Surcharges
War risk and conflict surcharges of $1,500–$4,000 per container are already being implemented.
Inventory and Supply Planning
Companies reliant on Gulf-origin goods or Suez transits should reassess safety stock and lead times.
Contractual Exposure
Review incoterms, force majeure clauses, and insurance provisions carefully.
M.E. Dey is actively monitoring developments and coordinating with carriers, partners, and insurers to assess real-time impacts.
If your shipments are moving through the Gulf, Red Sea, or Suez corridors, or if your supply chain relies on Gulf-origin energy products, we encourage you to connect with our team to evaluate exposure and contingency options.
We will continue to provide updates as the situation evolves.