As we move into the second month of 2026, concerns surrounding the global supply chain—and the ripple effects on trader futures and business planning are coming into sharper focus. What once felt like background noise is now moving front and center for importers, exporters, and manufacturers alike. One of the most significant drivers of this uncertainty continues to be President Trump’s fluid and often unpredictable relationships with countries across the globe.
Most recently, tensions have escalated as Canada and China explore a potential trade deal of their own. In response, Donald Trump has warned of a “substantial” retaliation should that agreement move forward. These comments come at a time when relations between the U.S. and Canada were already strained, following Trump’s threat to retaliate against Canada for refusing to certify certain Gulfstream aircraft manufactured in Georgia. The situation underscores how quickly trade disputes can broaden beyond tariffs into regulatory approvals, certifications, and political signaling.
Canada is not alone in reassessing its global trade relationships. The United Kingdom has also made moves to strengthen economic ties with China, with Keir Starmer recently visiting Beijing in an effort to promote trade and investment. These diplomatic overtures come while the U.S. and China remain bound by a reciprocal tariff framework that imposes 10% duties on each other’s goods. An agreement currently set to remain in place through November 10, 2026. While the deal offers a temporary sense of stability, it does little to eliminate longer-term uncertainty, especially given the broader geopolitical backdrop.
Chinese exports declined in 2025, reflecting weaker global demand, shifting trade routes, and persistent regulatory pressures. How severe the impact will be in 2026 remains unclear, but businesses are already preparing for volatility. Supply chain disruptions are estimated to cost companies roughly $184 billion annually, and studies show that approximately 65% of organizations experience at least one significant supply chain disruption each year. Against that backdrop, even modest shocks can quickly escalate into material operational and financial risks.
Several factors could contribute to additional disruption in 2026. Chief among them is the current geopolitical climate. Ongoing tariff uncertainty in the U.S. has left supply chains in a state of turbulence, complicating long-term sourcing strategies and contract negotiations. Trade concerns are also translating into supply risks for critical commodities and components, including beef, semiconductors, and energy-related materials, all of which are highly sensitive to both political decisions and global demand shifts.
Climate change remains another major disruptor. Billion-dollar weather disasters are occurring with increasing frequency around the world, affecting ports, inland transportation networks, and manufacturing hubs. These events disrupt not only import and export flows but also the production of goods themselves, as facilities are forced offline or face shortages of labor, power, or raw materials. For many companies, climate risk is no longer hypothetical—it is a recurring operational reality.
Labor constraints are adding yet another layer of complexity. As artificial intelligence adoption accelerates and the baby boomer generation continues to retire, many industries are grappling with workforce shortages that cannot be solved overnight. Sectors such as energy, mining, and advanced manufacturing are particularly affected, struggling to fill specialized roles that require both technical expertise and institutional knowledge. These labor gaps can slow production, delay projects, and increase costs across the supply chain.
Cybersecurity has also emerged as a critical concern. A recent global survey found that nearly one-third of procurement managers reported experiencing cyberattacks in the past year. With the rapid evolution of AI-driven threats, including deepfakes and more sophisticated phishing schemes, supply chains are increasingly exposed to digital risks that can be just as disruptive as physical ones. A single breach can compromise vendor data, halt operations, or undermine trust across an entire network of partners.
As Abe Eshkanzi, CEO of the Association for Supply Chain Management, recently noted, “Last year was about managing disruptions…Right now, it’s about redesigning your global network.” He added that many organizations are absorbing higher costs as they build additional inventory, diversify sourcing, and reposition goods closer to end markets in an effort to mitigate immediate supply chain risks.
While no strategy can eliminate uncertainty entirely, there are steps companies can take to reduce exposure. Increased transparency across supplier networks, stronger risk management frameworks, and robust crisis-preparedness planning are all essential tools. Importantly, supply chain professionals are no strangers to disruption and have spent years adapting to rapid change. Even so, experts continue to watch the evolving geopolitical landscape closely, recognizing that decisions made today by governments and businesses alike will shape the resilience of global supply chains well beyond 2026.